Prison Population Projections

The Ministry of Justice has published a prison population projection up to June 2015:

  • This bulletin presents projections of the prison population in England and Wales from September 2008 to June 2015. The projections are based on assumptions about future criminal justice trends (e.g. sentencing) and incorporate the anticipated impacts of policy and process initiatives that have agreed implementation timetables.
  • Three scenarios (High, Medium and Low) have been projected based on assumptions about future sentencing trends. The Medium scenario assumes no increases or decreases in custody rates or determinate sentence lengths. The High/Low scenarios reflect a 1% per annum increase/decrease in custody rates and a 0.5% per annum increase/decrease in the average (determinate) custodial sentence lengths. Other impacts included in the projections, such as those of legislation and processes, are applied equally to all scenarios.
  • Projected prison populations for the three scenarios are given in Table 1. By the end of June 2015 the demand for prison spaces is projected to increase to between 83,400 and 95,800.

  • The assumptions informing the projection, and therefore the projections themselves, are subject to considerable uncertainty. This is represented by the three scenarios, with each scenario being only as likely as the assumptions that inform it. While these assumptions are based on extensive consultation, and emerging data on them are being monitored, the department does not know yet which one is most likely to occur in future. They do not include impacts for any future measures for which implementation timetables are not yet known, or measures for which the effect cannot be projected with reasonable confidence.

Courtesy: criminalsolicitor.net/newsletter.asp

Andy Bolton

Solicitors in the UK | Compensation Solicitors

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